Sixty Days In and Counting: Are We On The Verge of Another Civil War?

Are We On The Verge of Another Civil War?

It is past half way to the first one hundred days and it has been a rocky start.  Protests following the inauguration, scandals of various types, and battles with the media are contrasted against accomplishments. So far only a handful of legislation and executive orders are being promoted as “the most productive administration ever.” Although the traditional press has been wounded from a daily barrage of administration criticism, some facts cannot be portrayed as lies or false information.  Their points that the Trump administration is not going to able to fulfill its campaign promises is gathering steam. In some cases these promises were not realistic and in others the promises were hollow claims.  Across the board, it will be very hard for the new administration to "drain the swamp."  Largely, President Trump is filling it with new creatures as fast as he eliminates many of the old ones. The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post among others have taken on the Trump Administration for several of its numerous actions and policies.  Almost daily since the inauguration, their Op Ed pages cry of what have come to be known as “Trumpisms”, actions that seem illogical at least and foolish at best.  The Administration is fodder for late night talk shows and Saturday Night Live. President Trump, Sean Spicer and Kellyann Conway are daily targets of parody, and Steve Bannon is portrayed as a type of Grim Reaper.  On a weekly basis, talks of impeachment are raised on BBC, CNN, MSNBC and other cable news outlets. Only the Fox networks are supportive of the president. In less than two months, President Trump has widened the divides that were apparent in November’s election. While many of his talking points like immigration reform, jobs and full employment, infrastructure building, and health care still resonate with the majority of the general public, his approach to addressing these issues has been caustic and often unrealistic.  The administration seems bent on destroying traditional government by not filling vacancies in critical departments, ignoring and overlooking procedural practices, and side-stepping the constitutional powers delegated to the president. As a consequence the Justice Department, the EPA, Homeland Security, the State Department, and the entire Intelligence community function in states of chaos where career civil servants are challenging the decisions of Trump appointees. While I am not a Trump apologist, there are times when I feel sorry for the new president.  He is clearly over-matched for this position.  The belief that any businessman can do a good job in running the nation is quickly fading, and the thought that Mr. Trump is the right man for the job seems less certain. A government cannot be run like a business, and Mr. Trump has no government or military experience.  In fact, a quick background check reveals that the Trump organization is not a traditional large business.  It has a mom and pop store character with little organizational structure.  Very few know how Mr. Trump conducts his operations or the financial solvency of the organization.  Mr. Trump does not have a degree in business, rather he inherited his father’s love for real estate development and simply used his college degree and some of his father’s money to secure entry into the field. Through his actions and mannerisms, Mr. Trump sells an image rather than a product, and he hawks it like the traveling salesmen of the late 19th century.  As a businessman, he is more hustler than polished.  Such traits were and are endearing to his base because they like his brashness.  In their minds President Trump is going to shake things up.  However in the eyes of the larger world, a 70-year old tough guy without muscle is seen as a bully. Especially someone who lacks common courtesies and is far from humble.  President Trump does not act presidential! For the first time in modern history, the American president is not seen as the most powerful man in the world.  Nor is the president seen as the true "leader of the free world." Regrettably, even before taking office, President Trump ceded his power to Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, a man that Trump greatly admires.  And here is the key problem.  Despite his large ego and media savvy, President Trump is overwhelmed by a world leader, who is seen as an enemy of his nation, and numerous global business tycoons.  Donald Trump has little in common with political idols Ronald Reagan nor Vladimir Putin, men who displayed power by doing manly things. They both wanted it acknowledged that they were the most powerful men in the world. Reagan rode horses and chopped logs in his old age. Similarly, Putin, who holds a black belt in the martial arts, is photographed in athletic endeavors.  Mr. Trump's singular activity is playing golf and he holds conferences with adversaries and dignitaries by playing on his personal golf courses. He needs to maintain a home court advantage. If Trump were black you would suggest that he stole his strategies from the hip-hop playbook instead a business or political manual. He brags like a rapper and tells tales like one. His name is a brand and an identity. "Trump" is also a verb, one that means defeating a foe or being triumphant.  He likes to display his name everywhere like the graffiti artists of the late 1980s.  A "Trump" can equally dis his enemies in public while always proclaiming he is the GOAT (greatest of all-time).  Trump is often more talk than action, but he knows how to create drama and sell it to the masses. In his personal world, Trump has always been the boss, and it was his way or the highway. Unfortunately, Trump is no longer in that environment.  You cannot pit advisors against one another.  Nor can you fire thousands of government workers or force them to sign non-disclosure agreements.  Government workers will complain and leak information when they believe something is wrong or they are not treated fairly. So, it is important that Mr. Trump learn that he is now President Trump and that his new job is serving the country rather than running it. The re-education of Donald Trump is imperative. He must leave the rogue personality behind and embrace a more corporate approach.  And he must become presidential to gain the trust and admiration of his nation and the world.  With that in mind it is equally important for the new president to realize that most politicians cannot deliver on lofty promises and this is why they make simple statements with qualified evidence.  Mr. Trump must learn that he is not on a game show, but rather in real life.  He must experience the world and not talk about in abstracts.  Because to renig on countless campaign promises does not mean things can be settled by law suits but rather he will be thrown or voted out of office.   America has never witnessed a singular revolt, the Civil War was pretty close, but Mr. Trump is in territory that few other American leaders have witnessed. Despite comments to the contrary, aspects of history do repeat themselves.  History is a product of human nature. The countless “parades” in support or against the president are reflective of Antebellum America, the period before the Civil War.  They are also reflective of the early days of the Reagan administration when people protested his proposed policies.  Americans took to the streets to also contest and support the election of George W. Bush. In overcoming their challengers, Presidents Regan and Bush learned that it is important to gauge public opinion.  One doesn't have to back down but modifications might be necessary compromises.  President Trump has yet to display the traits for public compromise. He is doggedly determined to push through on campaign promises even if the will is not there or the necessary funding.  Illustrative of this pattern are his executive orders banning immigration from predominately Muslim nations and his quest to build a wall on the southern border and make Mexico pay for it. The fights against Trump seems closer to activities before the Civil War because the sectional issues that confront him have been developing for a long time. However, during the Antebellum era Congress was often more powerful than the president.  It took a strong president, Abraham Lincoln, to resolve the sectional crisis related to slavery.  However, in this case, the aura of President Trump looms larger than Congress.  And although it was not this way when he was elected, the conflicts currently facing President Trump are more about him than the issues that he confronted on the campaign trail.   Immigration, health care, tax cuts, and military spending are historical issues that occur in cycles. Most presidents will confront these issues at some point or another, but usually not at the same time. In the modern era presidents in cooperation with Congress set a pace for dealing with domestic issues so that if an international crisis develops the government is not overwhelmed and can function like it normally does. But because this president demands center stage and is trying to handle multiple issues at the same time, an international issue will disrupt our government. No one has a clue what the president will do when confronted by simultaneous domestic and international challenges. As a result, public reactions to his decisions are equally uncertain. And that will be the foundation for a Civil War.  Because President Trump is: 1) unpredictable in his words and actions; 2) unable to work with both sides of the Congressional aisle; 3) willing to lie and/or assign blame to others; 4) uses rhetoric that inflames anger towards others and leads to racist, sexist, bigoted, anti-Muslim, and Anti-Semitic violence; 5) has not demonstrated a willingness to work with world leaders; and 6) has not rallied the public to a common cause. When a nation is divided on too many levels, it is at war with itself. If things continue at this pace, America is headed towards a Civil War during a Trump administration or in a successive one. Why? Because President Trump's political agenda is not his own but is rather ideas pitched by others.  He is serving too many masters, but the strongest voice is calling for him to destroy the existing government.  This call pits him against the Democrats and some Republicans, but more importantly the American people.  Trump's style is about conflict and chaos.  His style only benefits Trump, because he is the only winner in these conflicts. Americans want better government-less governmental waste, lower taxes, better services, and an efficient Congress.  However, if a crisis develops they want the government to solve it. And the president should be the leader of the government, not the most vocal critic of it. The difference between Trump's and other presidencies is in the way that this administration approaches problems and then offers plans to solve them. President Trump lacks a true ideology of how to run a government. His campaign was not based on the Republican platform but rather on a series of ideas that turned into slogans: "building a wall", "repeal and replace", "tax cuts", "winning", and "Make America Great Again."  No one outside of Trump knows how these goals can be achieved, and the Republican Party, which was always anti-Trump, solely embraces goals that match their own.  Again, here is where the danger lies.  President Trump is the first American president without a political base.  Few Republicans are loyal to him.  Instead they fear their constituents who voted for him.  Yet, if the president does too much to weaken the party or increase levels of public outrage, the party will disown him and support Vice President Pence, who is one of their own.  The only counter to this possibility is for Trump to play his constituents against their local officials, and humiliate them into supporting this agenda.  And in doing so he further alienates himself from the Republicans. Currently we can see how well this is working on a national scale with the progress on the border wall with Mexico, the Muslim Ban, health care reform, and budgetary proposals.  Congress is being tested to make these pledges work. Conversely, Trump is finding enemies for his base to hate.  He is attacking judges who disagree with him, firing federal prosecutors, denouncing the mainstream and left-leaning press, and accusing President Obama of "wiretapping Trump Tower" during the 2016 campaign.  Meanwhile a second Russia spy ship is off the east coast, Iran continues to violate its treaty, and North Korea is firing missiles into the China Sea and Pacific.   The critical mass is developing, when will the real "President Trump" arrive to save the day?!