Disruption and Status Quo

Weeks ago, I easily accepted the early University of Washington estimates of 200,000 to 2 million American citizens dying from COVID 19. While I hope that we don't see such numbers the lower figure is easily attainable. Less than 1% of the nation has been tested and we are already discussing reducing restrictions and having people return to work and sending children back to school. Nationally, the numbers of infected people has not decreased. It has only spread from state to state-in essence changing geographical locations.
I realize that Americans are uncomfortable staying at home. Too many people are out of work and people need money. At the same time, it is obvious that abruptly sending people back to work will only increase the potential for greater rates of infection.
With more than 738,000 infected, 38,000 dead and 65,000 recovered in less than eight weeks, it is easy to imagine hundreds of thousands dead. No major virus has lasted less than a year.  My points of reference are the Great Flu Pandemic (1918-1919) and the Black Death (1347-1353). Each pandemic killed millions, individually totaling a significant portion of the world's total population. Both had multiple waves and each wave caused further human and social devastation.
I frequently teach the Great Flu Pandemic in an American urban history course and the Black Death as a segment of a historiography course. The Great Flu infected 500 million, killing roughly 675,000 Americans and 50 million worldwide. Estimates suggest the Black Death killed between 75 and 200 million people in Europe. As we progress further into our current pandemic crisis, it appears that examining both work well not solely for college students, but for an American society, which seems indifferent to the legacies of global diseases.
While the Great Flu calls attention to the need for progressive politics and public health reform, the Black Death has more controversial aspects. This pandemic came from the East, had mysterious origins, led to racial hysteria, classism and riots, crude medical practices, and a transformation of the Medieval world. The Black Death died down in 1353, but did not disappear. It returned several times and in various locations. London, for instance, last witnessed the Black Death in 1666. A major outbreak occurred in Asia during the 19th century. There are currently 650 global cases of the Black Death annually. In many respects, the Black Death brought about the end of the prosperity of the era.
The world changed after the Black Death. In many parts of Europe, but in particularly in England, there was an economic and social revolution. A new-normal developed because workers now had to be paid to return to the manors. The Black Death also weakened the relationship between the king and the nobles, the nobles and the serfs, the clergy and the congregants, and the congregants and higher spiritual powers. These relationships often escape students who are trained in a strictly minimalist manner. They are also surprised to learn that the Black Death ravaged parts of Africa, the Middle East and South East Asia, not just western Europe.
Pandemics create global change. Let the Papal Schism (1378-1417), Prohibition (1920), the Lost Generation, and conclusions of the Avignon papalcy (1309-1376), the Hundred Years War (1337-1453) and World War I serve as examples. World leaders are aware of this and are rewriting history as you read my words. The Chinese are positioning its economy to continue to serve the world market and foster existing dependencies. Russia is testing the resolve of Europe and the United States by providing as little information as possible on its own casualties. Western-facing dictatorships are reaffirming their power to maintain control over their people and avoid revolutionary thoughts. To maximize authority, human rights and freedoms are usually denied in the course of pandemics.
Only in America are there mass outward demonstrations against the provisions established by the state. It should not be a surprise that the initiators of these protests have the blessing of President Trump and his confirming tweets. This is not simply about opening up the economy. COVID 19 must be and is being weaponized for President Trump to win re-election and continue his agenda. Even if the cost is in human lives.
The pre-stated facts of history are not lost on the Trump administration or those advising the president and his staunch supporters. Our Republican led Senate fears the common man. It is choosing large corporations over small businesses, and companies over individuals. The president publicly denounced voting by mail stressing that it would cost Republican victories. Republicans in the Wisconsin statehouse favored holding an election during the pandemic rather than canceling/postponing it. Conservative state and federal courts upheld this decision.
In the course of a week, the president claimed absolute authority, and when his authoritarian words were denounced, he took a different posture and decided to support a revolution. On April 18th, he tweeted to "Liberate Minnesota, Virginia, and Michigan," states led by Democrat governors supporting "stay at home" orders. Protesters, some armed, stood in front of state capitals demanding an end to "protectionist" social distancing orders. By April 19th, pro-Trump governors rejoiced and opened parks and beaches in spite of existing conditions.
The rejection of "stay at home" orders is a way of setting the stage for a denial of science and ultimately climate science. Our "Culture Wars" have now become wars of life and death focusing on fundamental freedoms in a democracy. A dis-information campaign robs the average American of a long life and basic rights. In challenging the "stay at home" orders, President Trump repeatedly stated that people were going to lose their second amendment rights. Nothing of the sort was mentioned. However, it brings the central claim back to socialism. The Trump base fears the rising specter of socialism, and is using the COVID 19 legislation as a means of empowering and enriching corporations. They are using this moment to denounce the social welfare state and handouts to workers. It has been used to denounce health care reform and Obamacare.
Because he cannot have his typical rallies, President Trump has transformed the daily COVID press conferences into misinformation forums. This is an example of the Trump brilliance. Part rally, vague campaigning and always boastful, the president has gained hours of free television time. It is more self-promotion than reassuring. Although Vice President Pence heads the national response, he does very little talking. In rambling question and answer sessions President Trump dominates typically denouncing points made by his own medical team and Democratic governors, and providing less than truthful information to the public. The outcome is that he is doing the best job possible, that the the previous presidents left the nation unprepared for the epidemic, that governors, especially Democratic ones, are not capable leaders, and the subtle suggestion that COVID is part of a secret conspiracy against the nation by immigrants or a foreign nation. Yet, he bears no responsibility for the thousands of American deaths. He points to Republican-supported COVID 19 legislation as an illustration that he is resolving this major health issue. That it is largely over and will be over as the nation re-opens the economy. Critical to his arguments is the suggestion that work is more important than health and that the virus is insignificant. And to prove his point, he talks less about the virus and more about other things.
Similar to how the Black Death traveled in Europe, COVID 19 jumps from place to place creating hot spots. The current hot spots are now arising in the Heartland. The rural poor and aspiring working classes in the Midwestern states lack quality medical care, but they are acting against their best interests and supporting Trumpist Republicans in Congress. They will not demand clean air and physicians because such "benefits" will help immigrants or undocumented workers. Consequently, as workers take ill and cannot work, food supplies are being disrupted and wasted.
COVID's hot spots are no longer the cities on the coasts but inland suburbs, second cities, farmlands and polluted industrial towns in the heartland. It may take another month or two before the entire nation sees its first wave of the virus. Similarly, COVID 19 is making its presence known in the Bible Belt. To no surprise, it is strengthening the evangelical community. People who fear COVID 19 and see it as a sign of the end of the world look to President Trump for answers.  His support of the church as a source of salvation, and his call to get these people into Sunday services re-affirm their faiths and confidence in his leadership.

Teaching the Black Death can work extremely well for those who reveal resentment towards our public health initiatives in fighting COVID 19.  Many of comparative issues that history students could easily spot like elitism, racial, class-based, occupational, and religious scapegoating are being highlighted by the more liberal branches of the media. COVID 19, like the Black Death, will usher in a new-normal. It will be visible in faith/religious centers, education, retail, housing, the workplace, government, and the media.
History suggests the pandemic is just in its beginning phases, and that we have many more months to go. Americans have demonstrated that they are impatient and want an immediate end to the crisis. Science tells us that the virus, not man, is in control. History, once again, will be the judge of human reactions. Already, the first chapter of the narrative suggests that COVID 19 will not be the exception to self-interested and class based behavior. Sadly, COVID 19's legacy may prove that America's social classes are not different from those during the Flu Pandemic or the Black Death. That the rich escaped the brunt of the virus by fleeing the cities; that the workers who remained behind suffered greater casualties; and that the elite easily assigned scapegoats for the angry mobs. That the emerging mob mentality revealed the worst of humankind as it was manipulated by ignorance, fear and greed. And, ultimately that men of science and logic, not politicians and rulers, held the keys to greater percentages of mortality.

I recently texted a friend confiding that President Trump would be lucky if the number of fatalities stayed under 50,000 people. She thought 50,000 people before the election. I meant by the end of April. Sadly we are almost there.




















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