Lasting Impressions

2020 was not a good year, but it has been an amazing year. And like many years, the calendar expands beyond its December terminus. In my mind, 2020 has been one of the longest years on record. Unfortunately, 2020 was a bad soap opera. It started long before January due to the impending presidential election and then the threat of Impeachment. The Democratic House initiated the anticipated impeachment process and Republican Senate delivered the expected acquittal. That event was instantly challenged by the details of a infamous telephone conversation asking for a favor, followed by cruise ship dramas concerning a little known virus. From that point forward the nation was overwhelmed with news about COVID, a corrupted electorate, another phone call, and ultimately a public coup! Although the election has come and gone, we are still debating its legitimacy.

January 20th officially begins the Biden administration. As the Trump presidency comes to a close, it is important to take a backwards glance. It is equally important to look forward to 2024. If Mr. Trump decides to run again, should he be judged on his first three years, all four years, his fourth year, or just his last few months?  I wonder which Donald Trump the public remember? What will the media will remember? What will Democrats remember? What will his fellow Republicans remember? Finally, I ponder what Donald Trump historians will remember? 

Our memories are tricky. Those who like President Trump will push the first three years focusing on immigration reform, three Supreme Court nominees, the tax cuts, and de-regulation. They will speak highly of the booming stock market. His critics will separate the economy between Wall Street and Main Street making him seem like a bad version of Ronald Reagan. Others will talk about racial violence, "the wall" and the separation of children from their families. However, I tend to think that most will characterize the lame duck period as representative of the entire Trump presidency. If so, President Trump will be regarded as the worst president in American history. And, I'm sure that such a historical account will not be kind to Rudolph Giuliani, Bill Barr, Mike Pompeo, or Devin Nunes.

How will history judge the Democratic and Republican leadership? Stagnant, ineffective or worse? What will be said of the coup? Will the president's political supporters be viewed as conspirators or even traitors?  Regardless of the public's perceptions, will citizen, ex-President Donald Trump remain viable for the next four years? Can he regain the Republican nomination? And, if Mr. Trump doesn't run, who will the Republicans pick? Will any of his fierce supporters like Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio seek the nomination? Will Donald Trump, Jr. run for the president? And will President-Elect Biden or Vice President-Elect Harris raise the Democratic banner in 2024?

I also wonder what history will say about COVID-19, and America's response to the COVID crisis? It can be divided into three phases: 1) discovery, 2) initial reaction and strategic response, 3) viral deployment and endgame. I feel that the discovery will be mired in mystery for years as much of that information will be classified. Initial reaction, public reaction and strategic response will be described as a major fail as the nation never developed a plan, did not deal with PPE and other shortages, and struggled with the deployment of the vaccine. The third stage is yet to be determined.

This plague, better known as COVID-19, has now been with us for over a year. Yet, in spite of all of the research and the creation of several promising vaccines, most Americans know very little about it. In one of the most educated nations, few can explain the pandemic that is affecting their nation. Americans don't discuss the virus, but rather its impact on their lives and freedoms. I am in amazement listening to educated adults (especially educators and students) discussing COVID. There is either sheer fear or absolute ignorance of the virus. Many are still calling it a hoax, and others attribute the statistics to fake news. Unfortunately, the President of the United States is one of the leaders of COVID misinformation. He has suggested that the counts are grossly over-inflated, and that every death is attributed to COVID. 

The president points to positive data highlighting that most Americans, less than 10% of the population is dying from the virus. He suggests that children and young adults are immune to the virus and that only the elderly are dying. And, that with the best health care in the world, the elderly, too, can recover.  He points to himself as a COVID survivor. Yet what he fails to acknowledge is: 1) COVID affects and kills all age groups, 2) not all Americans have health care, and 3) as president that he received far better care than the average American patient. He also ignores what he told Bob Woodward about COVID being a deadly air-borne disease.

The statistics, however, confirm that COVID is not going to simply disappear. Instead, the global data informs us that we are in the middle, not the end, of a pandemic. Various parts of the world are in second or third surges, and second or third lockdowns. These actions stress that the virus remains out of control. We may witness even more lockdowns as the Third World comes in greater contact with the virus.

To date, 85.9 million people across the globe have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Slightly more than half, 48.3 million, have recovered but more than 1.86 million have perished. The virus has had more than two dozen mutations, some more infectious than others. The United States, with far less than a quarter of the world's population, has nearly a quarter of the world's COVID infections.  Our hospitals are overcrowded, and somewhere between two to three thousand Americans are dying daily. Refrigerated trucks are serving as morgues. Over 350,000 are dead and it is predicted that another 50,000 will die before the end of the month. Operation Warp Speed, the program designed to find a vaccine and vaccinate the population, has suffered a major setback. While promising to vaccinate 20 million Americans by the end of December, less than 3 million have received an injection. States indicate they lack clear directions on how to deliver the medicine from distribution centers to patients. Given the fact that 70% of the population is needed for her immunity and that two injections of the same vaccine are required for full immunity, this will be a lengthy process. Based on current progress, the nation won't reach herd immunity before 2022. Parts of the world may be battling COVID beyond 2023!

However, in this era of alternate facts, the person who wins does not control the truth but rather controls the narrative. Besides COVID, there are other significant news stories. Iran is promising revenge for the loss of its general. North Korea is a nuclear power. China is transforming the world economies, and the European Union is in flux. Democracies are floundering in many quarters of the world. Instability still exists in parts of Central and South America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. To remain the "United States" and regain its mantle as a world leader, the Biden administration will have to address all of these issues. 

Yet domestically, COVID-19 will remain a media major story throughout 2021. This places a great deal of pressure on the Biden administration to correct the failures of the past year. If it cannot speed up the delivery of the vaccines and the inoculation of the public, it is more than likely that the massive infection and death rates will continue. America needs to stimulate its economy and provide relief to those facing eviction, food insecurity and poverty. The long lines of people waiting for COVID tests, vaccines, food, and medical care are not illusions. However, COVID fatigue has already set in and with massive disinformation and misinformation, the Biden administration will be fighting Republicans and large segments of the public. Americans will not want to wear masks nor shelter in place. Some will refuse the vaccine, and even more will not tolerate another lockdown. 

This all suggests a great likelihood that confidence in the new administration will not be favorable. This will probably lead to a lasting negative impression. So in a year of countless negative impressions what is another one! Or is this the one that makes a difference?

Maybe this was "the plan" from the beginning, when we saw it was going to be a horrible year.  Create more dissatisfaction and capitalize on it. And perhaps, this is the key to Trump's and more importantly, the Post-Trump Republican comeback.