There Is No Return To Normal

There Is No Return To Normal

The lesson that I want to stress is the importance of time in the writing and analysis of history. Keep in mind the Black Death spread from Asia to Europe in less than a year. The pandemic traveled throughout Europe within another two years and then continued for another four before it was temporarily extinguished. Yet, historians of the West are and were largely concerned with the impact of the pandemic in Europe. They did not follow its duration in Africa, the Middle East or Asia. And they did not record its return in those places. European history ignored the experiences of non-Europeans in its coverage of the plague. The pandemic though changed the course of the western world and impacted the rest of the globe. Two centuries later, a more immune European continent had conquered the world.

In English history, the Black Death reframes the monarchy, the economy and the trajectory of the nation towards an empire. Smallpox, not the plague, became the more feared disease. However, it was not the end of the Black Death. The plague returns, most famously, two hundred years later. In spite of modern medicine, the Black Death still makes routine appearances. Should we expect less from other diseases in terms of impact and ultimate power?

Hence, we should not overlook this chronology in the 21st century. It’s critical that time remains a constant factor in the progression of life. The virus that we commonly refer to as COVID 19 took shape in the last quarter of 2019, but was not a threat in the minds of most Americans until the second quarter of 2020. By that time, the virus had become a global pandemic. Americans squandered the gift of time. If Americans had addressed the threat in a more proactive manner in January 2020, the ways that we currently feel about this crisis would be dramatically different.

The restless American spirit suggests that we are stressed when confined with “oppressive conditions” for lengthy periods of time. More than six months of a pandemic has proven to be overkill for the American public. We are not learning from the Great Influenza Pandemic of the last century. Instead, we are creating panic and chaos. Constant contesting of public health officials and politicians are the more visible signs of societal collapse. Looking for and accepting non-scientific cures, virus denial, vaccine denial, hoarding of resources, and selling hoarded resources for profit are additional signs that the nation is fragmenting. Increase numbers of road rage, domestic violence, street violence and gun violence point to a continuing breakdown of civic society.

So now more than two years into the American phase of the pandemic, the nation is rushing to describe the situation as an endemic while there are massive outbreaks and new variants in other parts of the globe. In contrast to what is happening in America, the Chinese are locking down cities in reaction to Covid related threats. 

And there are other lessons to be learned. In nations were there is less internal and/or external movement, the rates of infection are lower than those in America. Where there are higher rates of vaccination, there are lower rates of infection.  More Americans are working remotely than people in most nations. Many nations have addressed supply chain issues and employment problems as related to the pandemic. Aspects of America’s economic woes are tied to people not working, not working in the office, and not addressing its dependence on China and other nations for supplies and cheap labor.  America is not doing as well as it could be in contrast to other developed nations.

There are contradictory signs in America. The CDC is still supporting vaccination and boosting. With over a million COVID related deaths and over 50% of the nation’s population infected, many citizens are still resisting vaccinations. Mask mandates ended in many states in the   spring. Most southern states prematurely ended these mandates during the winter. In response, some western and northern states set March and April dates. However, the federal government still maintained its interstate commerce mask restrictions until they were recently struck down by a judge. Masks while optional, are frowned upon in the red states.

We are living in a time of mass confusion and are watching further erosion of institutions and policies due to our reactions to Covid. We are constantly not learning from our mistakes. The CDC is forcefully revising its policies on the eve of another new crisis. Monkey pox is rapidly infecting Americans, particularly in urban areas. Instead of using government executive orders to increase mass production of vaccines, the nation is suggesting that this a “gay” disease and not addressing the crisis with all deliberate spread. Incorrectly, we are labeling a public health crisis to a specific group and this practice led to the spread of AIDS. Similarly, once again, we are allowing politics to dictate health care. Shifting Covid treatment for tests and vaccines from federal subsidies to insurance companies will guarantee that a large population of Americans, especially those without insurance will continue to contract and spread new variants of Covid. 

Covid is also playing a role in immigration policies. Title 42, a Trump era policy, was keeping migrants out of the nation at the southern border on the basis on a health emergency. Republicans want to keep Title 42 in place as it is used in conjunction with COVID 19. Yet, if Americans are trying to end the pandemic, are they going to be satisfied with the Biden administration’s proposed removal of Title 42?

Given the turmoil over masks, vaccines and vaccination policies, and COVID restrictions that impact commerce, Americans looked beyond their civic leaders and made their own demands. Not always sound decisions supported a cry for normalcy. That cry, not scientific data, is dictating new social and political policy.

Far too often people keep hoping that the end of the pandemic is a return to normal, or a return to life as it was before the pandemic. However, the world of 2019 is not coming back. Chronology does not change. 2020 followed 2019 and by early spring most Americans had been introduced to COVID 19. The virus has mutated and new variations of the virus have spring up all over the world.  Yet, people want to travel and in doing so will create further exposure to the virus. Americans are most guilty in this sector, and the United States leads all nations in COVID 19 related deaths and probably will continue to do so for a long time.  We should expect Covid to be with us for a long time.

However, the gap between 2019 and the eventual new world might be as long as five years. What will Americans be willing to do to protect themselves and set their world on a righteous path?