What Happens After Tuesday?

 I recently attended a conference and one of the reoccurring points of conversation was: "What happens after Tuesday?" Tuesday, of course being Election Day. There is a great deal of fear surrounding this election. Both political parties, Republicans and Democrats, have a lot riding on the decisions. People have called it the most important election of our lifetimes. There is a great fear that the American experiment, our democracy, is threatened by the outcome of the election. That if the Republicans win, authoritarianism will emerge. Conversely if Democrats win that the nation will fall prey to mass murders, criminals and radical rule.

Conspiracy theories are dominating the public discourse and it is hard to tell what will actually happen. Ever since 2016, Americans have lost faith in pollsters and polling. They want to believe that people are hiding their true feelings and not sharing their political views. In contrast, I don't think that is true. People are masking some of their social perspectives but they are not hiding their politics. Americans are divided on issues, but I can tell within minutes how people feel about immigration, abortion, crime, inflation and war. What may not occur is the long conversation that produces the honest conversations that people need to have in a democracy. The only talking that most Americans are engaging in are with close friends. We have become exceptionally close-minded and not very civil. Long conversations are reserved for arguing over perceived injustices and sports.

Op-ed columnists have found many of the key traits, that pollsters cannot verify.  But they do not live in a world of numbers and cannot be blamed if their forecasts are incorrect.  As Lee Drutman and Charlotte Hill state, people who may or may not vote, who are not well educated on the candidates, and who don't like politics hold the fate of the nation in their hands. There is a strong belief that working class whites, and to a lesser degree potential swing voting Latinos, will determine the outcome the national elections. This is the legacy and the future of a nation which is turning "Brown" and in two decades will not have a majority of any race. So to win right now, Republicans are betting on a coalition of whites and a few Hispanics, and Democrats are banking on whites, blacks, Asian Americans and Latinos. The slightest defection of any group can turn the tide.

So what happens on Tuesday will bring us to a frightening Wednesday! Because whatever side wins will make it worse!

I often find New York Times columnist David Brooks insightful because he does not think like me, but he sees the world in an intellectualized way. He recently wrote: "Politics has become a religion for a lot of people. Americans with a college education and Americans without a college education no longer just have different ideas, about say, the role of government; they have created rival ways of life. Americans with a college education and Americans without a college education have different relationships to patriotism and faith, dress differently, enjoy different foods and have different ideas about corporal punishment, gender, and, of course, race."

Brooks can look at the senatorial elections in Pennsylvania and Georgia and explain how Democrat and Republican voters have different world views. The two are not considering the same things, and this is a major reason for the intellectual fear of Wednesday.

Not all Republicans voters lack college degrees, and not all Democrats are college educated. Indeed, most politicians are college educated and they know better. We all know that there are countless numbers of flawed Republican candidates that are trying to make an appeal to an electorate based on single issues or seemingly related issues. And the selling of those issues are based on fear. The outcome of Tuesday's election is whether or not the majority of the electorate buy-in to those issues. 

Wednesday will tell us what the pollsters can only hint at. They will reveal the diagnosis for a damaged democracy. What percentages and what groups of Americans voters felt compelled to vote?  What are the current American values at the local, state and national levels? And is political revenge going to be a way of life? Will a president, vice president, cabinet members or others be brought up on criminal charges or impeached? 

Wednesday will tell us more about conspiracy theories and what Americans choose to believe. For example, is Q alive and well? Despite the lack of evidence, a surprising percentage of Americans now believe in election fraud. That constant advertisement campaign has led to the sanctioning of new laws that give powers to state legislatures and skirt around the Voting Rights Act. Are Americans in favor of limiting the right to vote? Wednesday will also tell us how important gun laws, bail reform and abortion rights are in certain locations. What about our support for the Ukrainians?  It can hint at candidates and their campaigns to address inflation and climate. And it will ultimately reveal the strength behind former President Donald J. Trump, and if he has a clear mandate to run for the Republican nomination.

What Wednesday won't determine is the end of the Voting Rights Act, the end of Affirmative Action, or the impact of Dark Money in politics. Those things are being determined by entities not running for political office.

Let's see how we are feeling on Thursday!

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